According to a report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the current bear market for Bitcoin (BTC) is one of the worst. It was the first time in history that the Mayer’s multiple slipped below the low of the previous cycle. Bitcoin’s fall below $20,000 on June 18 also marked the biggest loss ever booked by investors at $4.23 billion in a single day. Taking into account the above factors and a few other developments, Glassnode believes that a capitulation in bitcoin may be about to begin.
Bitcoin whales seem to have begun their buying, suggesting that the bottom may be close, and on June 25, analytics resource “Game of Trades” highlighted that demand for whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins has increased. A sharp increase was observed.
Another indication that traders are buying comes from comments from Glassnode, which show that the 30-day average change in supply on exchanges fell from 153,849 bitcoins on June 26, the largest ever in history.
Can the bulls continue their buying on the downside and make higher lows? Let’s study the chart of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin fell below $22,000 on June 26, indicating sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will try to pull the price towards the psychological level of $20,000.
If the price bounces off $20,000, it would indicate that the bulls are accumulating on the downside. This can keep the pair range-bound between $20,000 and $22,000 for a few days.
The first sign of strength would be a close above the 20-day exponential moving average ($22,890). This could open the doors for a potential rally towards the 50% Fib retracement level of $24,693.
This level could again act as resistance, but if the bulls cross the hurdle, the BTC/USDT pair could rally towards the 50-day simple moving average ($27,150). Bulls need to push the price above this level to indicate that the pair may break out of the downside.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) reached the 20-day EMA ($1,300) on June 26, but the bulls could not push the price above the resistance. This shows that the bears are not willing to give up their advantage easily.
If the price breaks below the current level, the bears will try to pull the ETH/USDT pair towards $1,050. This is an important level to watch as a break below it could indicate that the bears are in control.
Conversely, if the price rises above the current level or rises above $1,050, the bulls will attempt to propel the pair above the 20-day SMA. If they manage to do this, the pair may rebound to the breakdown level of $1,700. A break and close above this resistance could signal the start of a new uptrend.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) has been tied to a 20-day EMA ($241) since June 24. This suggests that the bears are defending their level, but the bulls are yet to give up as they look to advance.
If buyers insist on price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($277). This level can again act as a hard barrier but if it is crossed, the pair may try to rebound towards $350.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the current level, the pair can drop to $211. This is an important level to watch as it would suggest a rally that the bulls are attempting to make higher lows. But if the level is broken, the pair can retest the important support at $183.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) broke and closed above the overhead resistance of $0.35 on June 24, but the bulls could not clear the resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.38). This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
One minor positive is that the bulls did not allow the price to drop below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). It suggests buying on the fall. If the price rebounds from the current levels, the bulls will again attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA.
If they can pull it off, it would suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The XRP/USDT pair can then move up to $0.45.
Another possibility is that the bears could pull the price below $0.35. If this happens, the pair can slip to $0.32 and then to $0.28.
ADA/USDT
Buyers pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on June 26, but a long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively selling higher.
A slight positive is that the bulls have not left the ground and are again attempting to clear the upper hurdle on the moving average. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could move towards $0.70, where the bears can once again create a strong defense.
If the price falls sharply below this level, it would suggest that the pair may stay in the range between $0.40 and $0.70 for some more time.
This positive outlook is likely to be reversed in the near term if the price declines from the current levels and dips below $0.44. This can pull the pair up to $0.40.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) has been stuck between the moving averages since June 24. This suggests that the bears are selling on the rallies of the 50-day SMA ($43) and the bulls are buying on the downside of the 20-day EMA ($38).
The moving average is nearing a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If buyers push the price above the 50-day SMA, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $60.
This level may again act as a tight resistance, but if the bulls clear this hurdle, the momentum could pick up. Conversely, if the price declines and falls below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that the bears have outperformed the bulls. The pair could then slip to $33.
doge/usdt
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on June 25 and closed. Buyers extended the recovery on June 26 and pushed the price up to the 50-day SMA ($0.08), but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that the bears are aggressively protecting the level.
Buyers are again trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do so, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $0.09 and then to the psychological level at $0.10. This level may again act as a resistance, but if the bulls cross this barrier, the momentum is likely to pick up.
Alternatively, if the price fails to stay above the 50-day SMA, it would suggest that the bears will continue to sell on the rallies. The bears will then attempt to pull the price below the 20-day EMA.
related: Dogecoin Price Could Increase 20% in July With This Bullish Reversal Pattern
dot / usdt
Bears have been aggressively defending the 20-day EMA ($8.11) at Polkadot (DOT) since June 24, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. A tight consolidation near a resistance usually resolves to an upside.
If buyers drive price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair is likely to rise to the 50-day SMA ($9.13). This level can again act as a barrier but the chances of breaking above it are high. If this happens, the pair can rebound to $10.75.
Contrary to this sentiment, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. Sellers will then attempt to pull the pair below $7.30 and challenge the important support at $6.36.
shib/usdt
The Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke above the 50-day SMA ($0.000011) on June 25, but the bulls could not continue the recovery. The bears sold near $0.000012 on June 26 and are trying to pull the price below the 50-day SMA.
The 20-day EMA ($0.0000010) has started to move up slowly and the RSI is in positive territory. This shows that there is a slight edge among buyers. If the price bounces off the current levels or the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to resume the upward move.
If the price rises above $0.0000012, the SHIB/USDT pair is likely to rally to the upper resistance level at $0.0000014. If the price turns lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, this positive outlook is likely to be reversed in the near term.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) has been trapped in a tight range since June 25 between the 20-day EMA ($20) and upper resistance at $21.35. This suggests indecision between the bull and the bear.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint which suggests a balance between buyers and sellers. If the bulls push the price above $21.35, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally towards the 50-day SMA ($25). This level can act as a minor barrier but if it is crossed, the pair can rise to $30.
This positive outlook may be invalidated in the short term if price breaks below current levels or the 50-day SMA and 20-day EMA. This could open the doors for a possible drop to $16.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by hitBTC Exchange.
