Happen[in]Crypto takes a look at several possible wave counts for Bitcoin (BTC) to determine whether the bullish trend has ended.
Long Term Wavelength Count Analysis
There are two main possibilities for long-term wave counts.
The bullish shows that the price has reached the five-wave upward movement that started in March 2020 or is very close to reaching the bottom of wave four (white).
There are three main factors that support the possibility of this being a correct waveform count.
- Waves two and four have the same length
- The price is at the bottom of the channel connecting waves one and three
- The weekly RSI is oversold and is at an all time low.
A decline below a wave high at $13,880 would invalidate this particular count.
Bearish count indicates that the entire five-wave formation has already ended. In this case, BTC is in a new long-term bearish trend.
The irregularity in this BTC calculation is the huge difference in timing and magnitude between waves two and four and waves one and three.
Therefore, according to Elliott Wave Laws, the first calculation is more likely to be correct.
short term btc movement
For short-term calculations, a bullish probability indicates that the price has completed or is very close to completing the ABC corrective structure (red). In this, waves A:C have an exact 1:1.61 ratio, and wave C has a full five wave downward motion (black).
Therefore, if this count is to prove correct, the price will have to reverse to the current level.
The bearish count shows that the decline since the all-time high is instead a five-wave downside.
At that point, both calculations suggest that a short-term BTC rally may be on the cards. However, the size and length of the growth will help identify which one is the correct count.
In any case, a decline below $13,880 would mean that the long-term trend is bearish.
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