The crypto market is currently going through a period of extreme volatility as the global economic situation continues to deteriorate amid rising inflation and interest rates.
As the headwinds affecting global financial markets have defeated all traces of bullish sentiment, many crypto investors are predicting that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could drop to $10,000 before the market finds its bottom.
Although many traders ridiculed the idea of BTC falling below its 2017 all-time high, the recent drop to $17,600 suggests that this bear market may be different from the previous one.
Many analysts are talking about the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $10,000 in the coming weeks.
Historic drawdown is $10,350. points to the lower level of
An insight into how BTC might perform in the near term can be gained by looking at its performance during the 2013 and 2017 bear cycles. In 2013, the maximum drop for bitcoin was 85%, occurring over a period of 407 days. , The biggest drop was 84% in 2017 and lasted for 364 days.
According to a recent report by Arcane Research, the current downtrend has been ongoing for 229 days and has seen a maximum drop of 73% so far.
Mysterious research said,
“If bitcoin follows the blueprint of these cycles, the bottom should be as low as $10,350 at the end of Q4 2022.”
While there is always a chance that an 85% pullback is a possibility, Arcane Research also notes that “Bitcoin is now more and more tied to the broader financial markets, with the Fed, US elections, crypto regulations and stock markets affecting its performance.” We do.”
Further evidence that supports the possibility of a fall to the $10,000 range was touched upon by cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, who posted the following chart noting that “from a higher time frame market structure perspective, The next place we’ll be looking at is $10K-$12K.”
Based on the above chart, higher time frame market structure support is likely to exist between $9,500 and $13,500.
Delphi Digital said,
“Coincidentally, if BTC experiences an 85% drop from peak to trough, this zone coincides with an inherent low.”
Would $10,000 be a good place to go long?
Not every analyst expects a drop to $10,000. Take Blockware Solutions’ Will Clemente, for example. According to Clemente, the current range of bitcoin shows a good place for accumulation.
Bitcoin is incredibly cheap right now.
It has traded only so far below its 200-day trend and its total cost basis for 3% of its entire existence. pic.twitter.com/kW6BysdkQ0
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) June 27, 2022
Additional data from Glassnode shows that bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, balance price and delta value in its bear market floor model align with the 0.6 Mayer multiple metric analyzed by Clemente.
Glassnode said,
“Only 13 out of 4,360 trading days (0.2%) have seen similar conditions, having occurred in only two prior events, January 2015 and March 2020. These points are marked in green on the chart.”
Based on the delta price metric, which is still untouched, a potential low for BTC is $15,750.
related: Bitcoin’s Short-Term Price Prospects Have Improved Slightly, But Most Traders Are Far From Optimistic
John Bollinger, also the creator of the popular Bollinger Bands trading indicator suggested That the price of bitcoin may go down.
According to Bollinger:
Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on monthly chart completes with confirmation by Bandwidth and %B leads to tag of lower Bollinger Bands. There’s no sign of one yet, but it would be a logical place to put it down. ,
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.
