Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading inside an ascending parallel channel for over 300 days, which is likely a long-term corrective formation.
The weekly chart shows that BTC has been on an uptrend since its December 2018 low of $3,122.
If the price starts to move upwards at that time, it is most likely that this increase (white) will occur in wave four or five.
During this upward movement, the period between June 2019 to March 2020 and April 2021 to January 2022 (highlights) has been positive.
There are enough options between them to suggest that they are waves two and four of this growth.
The long-term movement is in line with this possibility. However, one needs to take a look at the short-term movement to determine if this is a correct calculation.
For previous wave count analysis, click here.
BTC triangle calculation
The first possible wave count states that wave four is forming inside a symmetrical triangle. In this, BTC is currently in sub-wave D (red). In this probability, BTC will rise to $51,000 – $55,250. This is an area formed by the 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement support levels. Later, a further decline would be expected.
Despite the ongoing improvement, this calculation is still valid.
A look at the short term volatility shows that BTC has another upward move before completing the above sub-wave D (red).
For this count to remain valid, the price would need to reach highs above $50,000 as each wave would need to retrace close to 0.618 from the previous one.
possibility of recession
Bearish counts suggest that long-term Wave Three (White) ended at an all-time high of November 2021 instead of May of the same year.
In this, BTC has just completed the first part of wave four (red). Later, another significant downside will occur, eventually bringing the price below $30,000.
The short-term movement will be similar to the triangle calculation. In this, BTC will complete another upward move towards $50,000 before the last drop.
complete btc correction
The last and least probable calculation is that Wave Four ended on January 24th (green icon) and BTC has now started the fifth and final wave.
The issue with this count is the extremely unusual sub-wave movement, in which wave one is shortened and wave two is irregular.
However, the short-term movement is similar to the calculations mentioned earlier, which would expect a rise above $50,000 after the current decline.
conclusion
To conclude, while there are many valid possibilities for a longer term movement. However, all short-term calculations show that after the current drop, there will be an increase of at least $50,000.
For Be[in]Previous Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis of Crypto, Click Here