The second half of March was relatively bullish for the markets, especially for Ethereum, with only two red daily candles. ETH started a rally above $2500 before rising 25%.
The crossing of the psychological resistance of $3,000 was an outstanding achievement for the bulls, which marks a decent recovery from the nearly 50% downtrend since hitting the all-time high. What will happen next?
daily chart
technical analysis by grizzly
ETH is currently struggling with a descending line (marked in blue) on the daily chart after crossing the $3K milestone. The line was very active, interacting with the price over the last 300 days.
This resistance is intersecting with the horizontal resistance at $3300, and a crossing of this area with the formation of a higher high can technically be considered as the end of the downtrend in the near term.
Over the past week, the RSI 30 days crossed the baseline and entered a bullish zone. Like the price, it is struggling with a descending trend line (marked by red), which was tested once on March 24 and is currently being tested again (yellow circle).
If the price can rise above $3300, the next resistance lies at $3600 and $4100. Otherwise, if the bears can defend this area, the support at $3000 and $2800 is the first area where the price is likely to find solid support.
moving average exponential level
EMA20: $2790
EMA50: $2830
EMA100: $3061
EMA200: $3488
4 hour chart
On the 4-hour time frame, ETH is forming an Adam and Eve pattern (marked in yellow), which is textbook bullish.
The baseline for this pattern is at the horizontal resistance level of $3300, which is mentioned in the above analysis. The OBV indicator is below the descending line (marked in red), and a crossing above it will likely coincide with a price breach above the resistance at $3300.
If the Adam and Eve pattern is completed then targets above $4,000 will become appropriate.
On-chain: Spent Output Gain Ratio – 30 Days MA
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is calculated by dividing the actual value (in USD) by the value at creation (USD) of the output spent. Or rather, the price sold is divided by the price paid.
When this metric is above 1, market participants are taking/spending their coins to profit. In the chart above, one can see that whenever this indicator is able to cross the baseline or 1, the price is able to reach higher levels and indicate a low risk buy.
This has not happened yet, and one can expect a breakout as the price crosses the $3300 resistance.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.