DeSci: Tech trees to fund ambitious science and tech

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Have you ever played Civilization, the game series created by designer Sid Meier? Over the years, a lot has changed, but one of the series’ unchanging hallmarks has been the technology tree. Why has it been such a constant component of the game? Because it allows you to get, at a glance, a bird’s eye view of the technological capabilities needed to make progress on your audacious civilizational goals.

Compare this with our actual civilization. If we wanted to, perhaps we could have mapped out many of the technological capability paths that lead us to the present day. After all, our current tech stack is the one that’s modeled after the Civilization tech tree. What if we could build a technology tree that was facing the future, starting now? The reality is, arguably, much more complicated than computer games. So, instead of mapping civilization on a large scale, perhaps we can start with different technology areas and map them one by one. Within the technology domain, one can break down the main goals for the field into the future capabilities that are needed to get there and work themselves backwards to the current capability stack.

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If it’s even possible, then what’s the point? The point is that, in addition to being an intellectually interesting endeavor, it can accelerate progress dramatically. Imagine you’re a funder, or talented postdoc, an entrepreneur in residence, or an advocacy leader looking to advance the tech field of your choice. Currently, it is very difficult to figure out how to plug in. Even after graduating in that field, digesting much of its literature, drawing on interviews and online courses, it’s not very intuitive to see how to connect the dots within a field. So that the field can be developed further. There’s a lot of information out there, but without a scaffold to map the context and dependencies of the various occasions, one can only infer that what you’re zooming in on is actually an important one in the field rather than an irrelevant detail. The obstacle that stands has to be solved by the upward technological innovation coming from that sector.

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A dynamic overview of an area makes it easier to coordinate efforts, find and fund under-rated areas, and determine how, together, they unlock novel capabilities and applications.

Tech Trees: Reality

In theory so far so good. Can this work in practice? At the Foresight Institute, we are trying to find out. Foresight operates five technical programmes:

  • Decentralized computing, focused on secure collaboration, headed by Mark S. Miller, chief scientist at Agoric.
  • Molecular Machines Focused on Molecular Precision, headed by Ben Reinhardt, PARPA.
  • Biotech and health expansion focused on rejuvenation, sponsored by 100 Plus Capital.
  • NeuroTech, focused on brain-computer interfaces and whole-brain simulation, is headed by Randall Coen, Carboncopy.
  • SpaceTech, focused on space exploration technology, headed by Creon Levitt, Planet Labs.

These programs come with expert groups of approximately 200 scientists, entrepreneurs and funders per group collaborating to drive sustainable progress, supported by workshops, fellowships and awards. To cope with the problem of the increasing number of new enthusiasts coming to these areas, in early 2022, we decided to create a technical tree to map each area.

Led by domain expert interviews, this pioneering team is now building technical trees of each area, starting with the state of the art, mapping each to long-term goals with conditional nodes, one branch at a time. At the end of Q1, we completed the first Tech Tree prototype.

Instead of engaging in armchair philosophy, our technical tree architects are developing the technical tree through discussions with domain experts working on each node. The cycles of feedback will go up the iterations of the tree until we get a clear picture of the area. Once v1 is complete, we will open the tree up to crowd-sourcing.

Each node will be clickable, allowing people to zoom in on a particular node to view relevant companies, advocacy groups, laboratories and independent projects. Others would like to know which open challenges need encouragement through funding. Researchers may present challenges to progress in their field. We can set rewards and rewards on obstacles to encourage progress.

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Tech Trees: Potential

The membrane separating trees can prove to be quite permeable. For example, the computing tree, along with tools like privacy-preserving machine learning, has something to say about the longevity technology tree. The molecular machine tech tree, along with tools such as non-clonable polymers, would be relevant to the encryption technology stack in the computing tree. They will all inform our future in space, from physical and energy advancements through molecular machines to longevity and human capabilities strengthened by neurotechnology.

As the branches of the various technical trees begin to condense with each other, the risks become even more apparent. Advanced artificial intelligence will be a major revolution and risk vector in all trees. But technologies to mitigate risks such as computer security will also become more visible and, thus, fundable. It could increase funding for “differential technology development”—that is, the development of civilizational security-enhancing technologies at risk.

Some pioneers seek to coordinate on desirable paths through a forest of trees, such as this civilizational map proposed by Trent McConaughey. Others would like to specialize in pushing the boundaries of their local domain, company or project, such as Balaji Srinivasan.

Tech Trees allow a variety of pioneers to compare notes and accelerate progress across the board.

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Such a long-term project may seem nave from where we are today. One reason is that we have sub-optimal equipment. To solve this, we co-hosted a hackathon with Srinivasan of 1729.com to build an app for better crowdsourcing and crowdfunding of such maps; Ivan Miyazono of Protocol Labs; McConaughey of the Ocean Protocol; Amir Banifatemi of XPrize; and Seda and Matthias Roder, and Andy Smoleck of Sonophilia. Top submissions are now collaborating on future road-mapping efforts through MapsDAO.

After all, trees take time to grow. But the sooner we sow them, the sooner we begin the many cycles of repetition needed to harvest their fruits.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.

The views, opinions and opinions expressed here are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Allison Duetman Foresight is the President of the Institute, a 38-year strong institution that supports the beneficial development of high-impact technology to make a great future more likely. She leads the intelligent collaboration, molecular machine, health extension, neurotech and space programs. he co-edited the book Superintendence: Coordination and Strategy and co-author Gaming the Future: Intelligent Voluntary Collaboration, She holds a Master of Science in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics, with a focus on AI Security, and has a Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of York.