ADA looked sideways on Tuesday as Fed fears oversaw developments leading up to the September 22 Vasil hard fork. Slightly below this week’s high of $0.51, ADA declined to a low of $0.47. Ethereum, Solana, and Apcoin, among other coins, also retreated. Investors reacted to another turning point in opinion on Fed monetary policy as updates on the Vasil hard fork were withheld.
Compared to the September 6 swing high of $0.512, Cardano price reached a high of $0.524. Although the forecast was positive, it was unable to continue, leading to a sharp 8.7% sell-off. A lower low, or liquidity fractal, has existed since June 19, but has not yet formed to the downside.
A full blown uptrend is unlikely as Cardano price is likely to return to $0.488 before a fall. A subsequent bearish move could take ADA to the $0.433 support level, but the optimal liquidity run would be a sweep of similar lows formed at $0.425.
Although Cardano price has a bearish outlook in the near term, the long term scenario seals the deal. ADA forms a descending triangle, with three lower highs and two equal lows at $0.40.
According to the trend lines connecting these swing positions, a descending triangle has been formed since 10th May. By calculating the distance between the breakout point at $0.400 and the opening swing high and low, this technical structure predicts a 40% downswing to $0.241.
Cardano price would suggest a breakout and perhaps a drop of 40% to $0.241 if it gets a three-day candlestick below this level. At the time of writing, ADA is trading at $0.47 and is down 6%.