options market analysis
After Bitcoin fell to $42K on December 4, feared by Omicron, its price could not rise more than $52K over the previous month. BTC is now trading at $47k. The short-dated ATM-implied volatility peaked at 94 and is currently sitting at 66.
The call for the $50K strike price has the highest Open Interest for the 2,3 and 7 January expirations. A lot of calls were sold for these expiry in the last few days. It seems that options traders should not be optimistic about a price increase of more than $54K ending the first week of January due to low demand in the spot market.
technical analysis
On the daily time frame, bitcoin is completing a pullback with a broken trend line (the yellow ones), both for price and the RSI. But we cannot say right now that the reform is over. The price needs to make a higher higher and break the blue trend line in the price chart and RSI. This resistance on the RSI is the intersection of SM100 and Baseline 50, and crossing it indicates that the bears are exiting the market.
On the shorter time frame, the price fluctuates mostly in a rectangle (yellow box). In the near term, a safe spot could be a breakout of the RSI downtrend and MA21 as it happened on December 21st, leading to a 11% rise.
on-chain analysis
Despite the neutral to negative sentiment in the futures market, the on-chain data has positive medium-term and long-term indicators. The weekly-average number of active users is increasing along with the steady improvement in hash rate. This trend confirms that demand is still in the market, and any catalyst could start another rally.
The above analysis was complied by analysts @greatest_trader, @N__E__D__A, And @CryptoVizArt Specifically for cryptopotato.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.