Research claims that Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “cycle bottom” this year, in which it could fall by more than 50% from current levels.
In a Twitter thread on June 1, VentureFounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform Cryptoquant, predictable 2022 to “capitulate” as the year of bitcoin.
Bitcoin Now Has “Best 3-Year ROI”
Based on historical patterns associated with bitcoin’s halving cycle, this year should be the bearish black sheep of the current four-year cycle, wrote VentureFounder.
Like 2018 and its bear market, BTC/USD should find itself a macro floor at some point in 2022, and counting the previous decline from previous highs, it could be anywhere between $14,000 and $21,000.
One tweet explained: “670 days until the next bitcoin halving, we are on time for BTC to perform compared to previous cycles.”
“Over the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate over the next 6 months and reach the bottom of the cycle ($14-21k), then cut back to $28-40000 for most of 2023 and again at ~$40000 by the next halving “
Such a forecast, while not music to the ears of the bulls, would not be without precedent. After reaching $3,100 in December 2018, bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later, then rebounded again to a low of $3,600 in March 2020.
Even the 2019 local high was not high enough to break the all-time record high set in December 2017 – $20,000.
The VentureFounder believes that this level could again become a feature of the spot price chart. Those willing to ride the wave and invest will – still – be on the right side of history.
“In other words, from this point it is as good as buying bitcoin for the next 6-12 months. Probably the best 3-year % ROI ever,” he added:
“We may not be at the bottom of the cycle, but we are within the bottom range of the BTC cycle. This is the best you can do when timing market cycles.”
the below forecasts keep coming
Meanwhile, others have already speculated a possible lower range at or near $14,000.
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This price would represent a drop of about 80% from the current $69,000, which is less in percentage terms from the previous cycle.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that current levels are comparatively modest at around $31,000.
Last month, fellow analyst Recht Capital calculated a possible target of $15,500 after BTC/USD dipped below the 200-week moving average.
Sellers may face difficulties in driving the market down so far. MicroStrategy, which owns the largest BTC corporate treasury, has promised to buy in any cascade up to the $20,000 mark.
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, has also confirmed that he would be interested in BTC for $20,000.
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