Bitcoin has been trending upward since January 24. It is possible that the growth is contained inside an ascending parallel channel. BTC rebounded at the support line on March 14th and started gaining momentum.
On March 27, bitcoin broke above the $44,800 area and the midline of the channel. It then returned to validate this area as support on April 1 and 6 (green icons). While the subsequent daily candlestick has not closed yet, it is in the process of forming a longer lower wick, which is seen as a sign of buying pressure.
The next nearest resistance is at $51,000. This is the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement resistance level and coincides with the resistance line of the channel. While both the RSI and MACD are declining, they are still in positive territory.
short term resistance
The two-hour chart shows that BTC has been trading below a descending resistance line since March 28. So far, it has made six attempts to break (red mark), all unsuccessful. The most recent rejection occurred on April 6th and caused a downside correction to a low of $44,412 on the same day.
However, BTC bounced off the minor support area of $44,550 and formed a very long bottom wick. This was the second time the area offered support (green sign).
BTC wave count analysis
The most likely long-term wave count indicates that BTC is in wave C of the ABC structure (black).
The most likely top level for this formation is found near $50,700. This target is found by giving waves A and C a 1:1 ratio (black) and a 1.61 outward retracement of sub-wave four (white).
Sub-wave counts are shown in white.
There are many possibilities for short-term calculations. BTC is most likely still in sub-wave four, which has taken the shape of a symmetrical triangle.
After the completion of the triangle pattern, a breakout towards $50,700 would be expected.
The second possibility would suggest that BTC has started the fifth and final sub-wave.
The issue with this count is the length of the second smallest sub-wave (red), which is actually larger than the second sub-wave (white).
Had this been calculated correctly, Bitcoin would be expected to hit a high of $54,000.
The last possibility suggests that BTC has just completed sub-wave four within the ongoing correction.
The end result of this scenario will be virtually the same as the triangle pattern wave count.
bearish options
The main bearish option indicates that wave C is complete. However, BTC is currently retiring from previous breakout levels (green icons), both horizontally and diagonally.
Therefore, as long as it is trading above these levels, it is not possible to count.
Furthermore, the short-term movement does not fit with this bearish option. This is because the downside following the March 28 high is a three-wave structure rather than a five-wave one, as might be expected if this was a bearish trend reversal.
For previous bitcoin (BTC) analysis from BeInCrypto, click here