Blockware Solutions – a blockchain infrastructure and bitcoin mining firm – has released a report analyzing the pace of bitcoin adoption, and what to expect next. The firm’s analysis calls for at least 1 billion bitcoin users, 10% of the world’s network is predicted to be in use by 2030.
The Mathematics of Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
According to a company press release on Thursday, the report applies an “S-curve” to the plot of bitcoin’s future adoption — a theory that breaks down the adoption path of new technologies into five tentative stages.
These stages are defined by the order of adoption among different types of people. These groups are, in order, innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. Most development theoretically occurs during the early majority and late majority stages.
A February report from Wells Fargo noted that cryptocurrency adoption is following a similar pattern. It claimed that the current adoption phase of crypto mimics that of the Internet in the 1990s, adding that it is approaching “hyper-adoption”.
too early, too bullish
Perhaps more bullishly, Blockware’s report predicts that bitcoin will be adopted faster than such previous technologies. The team expects 10% of the world to be on the network within just 8 years.
Blockware’s Lead Insights analyst Will Clemente broke down his team’s predictions in an interview with Anthony Pompliano on Thursday.
“Where we think bitcoin adoption is headed, I think we are getting ready to hit that main S-curve of adoption,” he said. Furthermore, as the network continues to grow “on the tracks of the Internet” and comes with monetary incentives baked-in, its “network effect” is expected to be extraordinary.
The report also argued that user adoption has a positive effect on the price of bitcoin. At the moment, the number of active users of the bitcoin network is estimated to be around 0.36% of the global population.
Blockware analyst Mitch Askew said he “expects global adoption,” but finds the lower-than-expected figure “incredibly fast.”
“You have this network effect that continues to grow and grow exponentially… and then at some point you’re going to have some sort of event that releases that valve,” Clemente said.
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