One of the leading crypto analysts argues that the market behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) is not yet “synonymous” with the bottom of the previous bear market.
one in twitter thread On September 14, statistician Willie Woo, creator of the data resource WooBull, … Offered Three examples of why BTC/USD should still drop further.
Despite many calling a new macro price bottom when it traveled to $17,600 in June, not everyone is confident that bitcoin will survive a retest.
For Wu, there is still reason to believe that lower levels will mark a new price floor – and it could happen anywhere, including below $10,000.
“Underwater” supply is less than in the low-lying area
One metric Wu flags is the percentage of the total BTC supply that is at a loss – now exceeding the price at which it last moved.
In previous bear markets, price drops occurred with over 60% of the coins being underwater.
“In terms of maximum pain, the market hasn’t felt the same pain as the lows before,” he cautioned with a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
According to that chart, 52% of the supply is currently in loss, and to reach the 60% mark, BTC/USD would only need to drop to $9,600.
Wu said that in the pit of bitcoin’s pre-bear market, the “clean” supply broke the long-term trend line, this time also with nothing.
cost basis edge towards target area
Another telltale sign of the bitcoin market bottom is in the composition of its investor base – long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
Generally, at the bottom, STH has a lower cost basis than LTH. This means that STH paid less for their coins than LTH, with the latter defined as those holding BTC for 155 days or more.
“We are close, but not yet. IMO some more time to burn,” commented Wu.
Earlier, David Puell, creator of the Puell Multiple Indicator, Marked differences in cost basis as an “interesting” factor for analysts to consider.
accumulation is not “synonymous” with history
Ultimately, hodlers big and small still need to hoard harder, Wu concludes.
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Along with Glassnode’s chart of bear market accumulation trends, he noted that in 2022, BTC has not flowed from sellers to buyers “instantly” than before.
“So far we do not have accumulation levels synonymous with prior bottles,” he explained.
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